Leader's Edge
New Strategy for Business Planning
Predicting the future is one thing - being prepared for future events is another matter. Peter Cappelli, in a recent Human Resource Executive Online article, introduces "scenario planning" as a tool to prepare for the future. Scenario planning is a group process that requires expert opinion of groups as a way to imagine alternative visions for the future. In CCS courses, students become familiar with the term along with another group technique, the Delphi process.
Scenario planning, as described by Cappelli, involves a concerted three-phase process for tackling big issues involving: first, identify the issue to be addressed; construct alternative visions; and look for the themes that emerge. The following example reveals interesting results.
In looking to the future the Society of Human Resource Management, asked "What will the future be like for the human resource function in 2015?" Following the scenario planning agenda, (extensive discussions and focus groups), two most important uncertainties were predicted between now and 2015 stated as follows: "Will labor be scarce or abundant?" "Will business operations continue to decentralize/become virtual or trend back toward centralization?
By combining the key issues, four possible future roles were projected: HR as casting director (locating talent for specific projects), global dealmaker (supplying talent to multinational companies), caregiver (building talent to perform job functions) or system integrator (improving productivity and performance). The first two roles are decentralized functions, while the latter two are centralized functions.
Again, the task is not to crystal ball the future. The initial task was to prepare for the future. The information generated by the scenario planning process resulted in the identification of the overriding competencies required of the scenarios. Regardless of the vision that emerges in the future, all will require a set of competencies in "strategic thinking, talent management and business acumen."
CCS courses that introduce scenario planning concepts include Principles of Management, Marketing, Business Policy and all MBA courses.
Reference:
Capelli, Peter (2006). Visions of HR. Human Resource Executive Online. Retrieved August 8, 2006, from http://www.hronline.com
